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Masters of the Obvious: Applicant Volume vs the Dow

Friday, April 10, 2009 4:41 pm - by ccountouris
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For every 1 applicant increase per job, we can expect a 45 point drop in the Dow.

Because we serve as the internal recruiting function for hundreds of companies, we have some unique insights into job applicant data. I recently pulled the data for all jobs closed since the beginning of 2007 and plotted it against the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Because we serve as the internal recruiting function for hundreds of companies, we have some unique insights into job applicant data. I recently pulled the data for all jobs closed since the beginning of 2007 and plotted it against the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Our resident math wiz, Mike Zaret—aka, Assistant to the HR Director—ran some regressions (linear AND polynomial, how exciting!) for me and there was a great negative correlation between the applicant volume and the Dow. For every 1 applicant increase per job, we can expect a 45 point drop in the Dow.

So the question is does a drop in the Dow drive an increase in applicant volume, or does a rise in applicant volume indicate business environment that will drive a drop in the Dow? If it’s the latter, I’m going to start a securities business on the side and start shopping for jets. Unfortunately, both applicant volume and the Dow are dependents of the underlying economic forces.

So what does this data really mean for us? How can we apply it to drive meaningful business results? I’m going to have to get back to you on that. It appears that we’ve confirmed statistically something that is common sense. Either way, it’s interesting data.

Stay tuned for the next piece in my “Ice is COLD!!” blog series …